Thursday, April 29, 2010

OAKS DAY THOUGHTS

Race 6:


Rachel dominates...DUH

Zardana comes back and ges 2nd again

Unrivaled bell has a shot...to fill out exacta.

Race 7:

2 year olds--Ill just bet on getting a beer for this one.

Race 8: Turf Sprint G3--5 Furlongs

hmmmm.....

Race 9: Alysheba G3: 1-1/16 Miles

Thoughts: A bunch of big name horses line up here. Think some of them will be over bet based on what was expected of them last year and some of the under the radar horses can take it here.

A) #4 Cool Coal Man--> Think he is primed to run a big one. The pace scenario if favorable for him. He can either take the lead or just sit off Friesian fire who tends to disappoint and will be over bet. Cant ignore that he is 4-6 at the distance and does have a win over the track. He has has a freshener down at gulfstream and fired a bullet over the local course. Has some recent form which should be a benefit over some of these who are coming off extended layoffs

A) #6 Bullsbay--> Last years champ hasn't raced since november when he disappointed at this track. I think it was a long year for him last year having run 11 times, the time away from the track will have done him well. Working well towards this comeback and has an affinity for CD having won here 3 times and 4-4 at the distance in his career. Don't think he will sit as far back as he has in his past couple, think he will make 1 run and be tough to hold off late. Has thrown up a 100 beyer in an off track if the rain comes.

C) Flying Private--> Here by default since none of the other runners excite me that much, this guy at-least can run on and hit the board at a decent price. Was thrown to the wolves last year in derby and was asked to do a lot. I like how they have brought him back stepping him up each time and he seems primed for his best run, which might only be good enough for 2nd or 3rd in here.


Race 10: American Turf G2- 1-1/16 Miles TURF

Thoughts: seems to be a bunch of horses who want to sit close to or lead in this race so im looking for a closer or stalker. Setsuko will be over bet since ran so well out in cali, but always seems to be over bet and never produce. I think he goes off favored here and dont want to touch him at that price. Lost Aptitude is clearly the horse to beat with 2 big wins over the course. I'll take a few shots with price horses who can step up.

A) #6 Doubles Partner--> Tried to get him involved in the derby picture with his last race, but something went wrong there so now he is back on turf a surface where he has his 2 career wins on. Versatile runner who can stalk or close and with this race appearing to have an abundance of early speed, the setup should be great for him. Think he can step up here.

A) #7 Asphalt--> Ran okay in his past couple not getting beat by much in both of those races in florida. I think with the way the gulfstream turf was playing this meet forced him to make some early moves to have any shot. He is very consistent and should be able to sit off the pace and come running at a decent price

C) Setsuko--> The connections would rather have him run in the derby, thinking that dirt is his preferred surface, he has run well in his only run on turf. He often disappoints and i think he will be lucky to run 2nd in here again some very nice horses.


Race 11: KENTUCKY OAKS G1 1-1/8

A) Blind Luck--> the favorite for a reason and has the best speed figure in both here and derby. Should get a good pace scenario for her to come flying late. she just figured to be a short price and tough to beat.

B) It's Tea Time--> has been