I'm back and and looking at the belmont stakes...._____BELMONT FRIDAY______
**10th: Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap**
I will let #2 Drosselmeyer beat me here at even money. Sure he has a good record at this distance and track including last years belmont, but this horse has always seems like a plug to me and that last was his 3rd off layoff so i don't think he improves anymore and may regress some, even with 2 decent works since. Still is a play against...
#1 Eldaffer won the breeders cup marathon last year and has had 2 turf starts to start the year. He won this
race 2 years ago and ran a decent 3rd here last year. We know he likes the distance and track and should offer a little value in comparison to the Drosselmeyer. Should be able to sit right behind the speed and get first jump.#4 Birdrun is Mott's other runner in here and will be a much better price. Seems this one has had some injury issues as only been able to string a race or two together without taking a break. He has done it once and that resulted in his best race and 2nd best race of his career. He is by a winner of a 1-1/2 race who has produced winners at the distance and thinking he is the play in here.
BROOKLYN / BELMONT DAILY DOUBLE PLAY:
$10 1 w/ 9,12 ($20 Bet)
$2 1,3,4 w/ 1,4,5,9,12 ($30 Bet) (small field have to include longest odds horse in first leg)
__________BELMONT STAKES DAY_________
**6th: The Grade 1 Acorn Stakes**
#2 Turbulent Descent has been one of the most impressive fillies this year and her connections knew she had distance limitations and planned on keeping her around 1 turn. She has been pointing to this spot since her last start demolishing the other starters at Keenland. She is a very likely winner in here and will be right at that 3-5 she is on the morning line, so won't get rich betting her but will be fun to watch.
I've made it no secret that I have liked #4 It's Tricky for quite a while now and hoped she would make the starting gate in the kentucky oaks but got too far back and ran into a monster in her last. Looks like she has regrouped and has 
been training well over the belmont surface for her return to the races. I find it interesting Castro gets back aboard which may mean they want to keep her closer to the pace. If she got anything out of her last and can
improve from her numbers over the winter at Aqueduct she has a fighters chance in here and hope the home track plays to her advantage and could be a nice separator to start in that $1,000,000 guaranteed pick 6 pool
been training well over the belmont surface for her return to the races. I find it interesting Castro gets back aboard which may mean they want to keep her closer to the pace. If she got anything out of her last and can**7th: True North Stakes**
...fun betting race with lots of good horses to end up on….
#3 Trappe Shot was very impressive in his first race of the year, beating some of the rivals in here. They tried to make him into a classic horse but he was better at sprinting and thats where they are keeping him this year.
Owns two huge wins over the track including in last belmont undercard. Wish he was drawn more on the outside, but he can handle this and its my top pick.#4 Rule By Night was sent off 2nd choice in the prep for this versus Trappe Shot and D'Funny Bone, which is saying something and he ran a little disappointing, however he may of just needed a race. Seems versatile enough to be able to take back off the speed or to press the leader if he's not the leader. 2nd time over the track and the ability to take the lead if no one else wants it makes him very dangerous especially at anything near 6-1.
#2 Wildcat Brief has races that put him in the thick of this race. He is the main closer in the group in which if they get going too fast early he could scoot along to pick up the pieces. Lesser connections will keep his price right, but unless they really cook up front i think he might give himself too much to do, especially with some of the top class stalkers in this race who might get the jump on him. Outside chance at win, very good for hitting the board and juicing up the exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.
#1 D'Funnybone/ #1A This Ones for Phil poses a very tough one-two punch. Both having good prep races, and back class, There isn't a ton of early speed in here, but both should be stalking it and pouncing. Now I expect them to take a lot of money and with such a wide open field i think ill pass and hope for a price…
#7 Frazil is a more of a now horse testing his limits. Just caught my eye what the trainer is doing here. 3 races ago route--ran well; then sprint HUGE effort-- then stretches him back out to a route of ground, can we expect the same kind of result?? He if he can run back to the 106 beer there is no doubt he can be competitive in here, but this is a BIG BIG step up in class and i like the outside draw. Now if this was part of the pick 4 i would include in at a price, but not in the p6. Not saying he will win just an interesting strategy by the trainer..
**8th: Grade 2 Woody Stephens**
…anyone has a shot in here...
I expect the #1 Travelin Man to be one of the favorites in here and tough to beat. however I do not like his post. Now i wouldn't be surprised to see him bounce back off his last effort and win here, i think we look elsewhere for value.
#2 Justin Phillip is interesting to me at a price. It looks like 1 turn racing is where he will do his best and note his best performance did come at Belmont last year. I like the cutback in distance, his ability to sit off some of the speed and I like how Dominguez stick around and his experience might be the difference vs others in here who aren't as seasoned.
#4 Bold Warrior burst on the scene with a nice maiden win here in his last. However I just don't like playing horses who go from maiden to grade stakes. He may be improving and could be dangerous firing a bullet workout since his last win…but next time for him for me.
#5 Arch Traveler looks like he found his home going 1 turn for now. Very impressive win in his last sitting off the speed and pouncing with ease. Now similar with #1 Travelin Man, he will be a short price and does not tower over these, but will be a much shorter price than others, although I'm fearful ill be wagering against…
#7 JJ's Lucky Train, I am willing to forgive his last effort as he was rank and still was able to run 3rd. I think if he can relax in this race like he did in the Bayshore he has a great shot at winning here. Cutting back a furlong which will only help, he is a gutsy horse and is 2 for 2 at this distance and i like his post, able to stalk on the outside, nice workouts since last too.. good to go.
#6 Little Drama is starting to act more like his big bro (Big Drama-champion sprinter from last year) and is getting better with age. His last 2 races were good and we know he likes the tricky distance of 7 furlongs as 2 of his 3 lifetime wins are at this distance, he will need to step up but is a player in here.
now i have mentioned every horse except for the #3 who i think is just overmatched in here and i don't like at all.
**9th: Grade 1 Just a Game**
#2 Aviate i think looms a monster in here, both U.S. starts have been good and her last was especially good. Now she will have to prove that she can do it over a firm course, as that course on derby day wasn't firm at all. The horse she lost to 2 back has came back to run 2 big races since then. She's good, getting better and will be tough here and i might go in heavy on her..
#1 Gypsy's Warning ran well in her return and maybe the soft going or the keenland track wasn't to her liking last out. We can excuse that as it was her first start of the year, this might be her preferred distance and is versatile enough to close from way back or sit just off the pace..
#7 Cherokee Queen doesn't need to take her track with her. She has run everywhere she has been, has a win over the course and was only beater 1-3/4 lengths in this event last year. She is good at the distance, a good price and worth a shot at a price…
#6 Fantasia is a logical contender but since she has come over to the states she has only a nose win to her credit. She always runs well but seems to come up just short at the wire. She will be backed and ill be looking elsewhere for the win slot.
**10th: Grade 1 Manhattan**
# 4 Gio Ponti is back after they flirted with retirement then ran him in the dubai world cup, where he was given a questionable ride, but still ran very well. He did the same thing last year shipping to dubai then running in this spot and came up a little short to his stablemate and ran 2nd at even money. He is a year older and we hear is he training great but again might need a start. Clearly will be tough and always runs his race having run here on the turf 8 times and never finishing worse than 2nd. I expect him to be even money again and should be tough
#5 Al Khali is a tricky sort who is tough to figure out. Runs consistently and had some troubled trips in big races last year. Mott has had a slow year this year and nothing was going right earlier in the year.
His last was UGLY, now they called that turf firm on derby day and it was far from that as a lot of trainers say it was closer to soft than firm and maybe he didn't handle. He has 2 of his 6 lifetime wins at this course, 3rd off the layoff and with #4Gio Ponti and the euro invader #6Viscount Nelson in here we should see around that 10-1 on the morning line if not higher. I think he can pop if he get a clean trip..which is a big IF…#6 Viscount Nelson will take money since he is a euro coming over from top connections. As great of a trainer he is in europe his record shipping horses over to the states is POOR. However you cant argue this ones class and good races over there. Scares me a bit…
#7 Prince Will I Am had a tough trip in his last and good enough as a lot of these. He always takes money including burning money in his last 2 as the favorite. 3rd choice on the morning line in here and should have a good chance as we do know he likes the course.
with #3 Windward Islands I'm trying to get cute in here. The 7 year old has been competitive in his races in canada and even ran well in his last at keenland. He likely needed that start and will need atlas a repeat of his win last july to compete in here. I just feel like there are reasons to shop for a price in this race. So on deeper tickets I give him a shot and he has a good shot at hitting the board if others don't bring their "A" Game….think he floats up from his 8-1 morning line too..
#9 Straight Story will want to be on the lead, problem is so does the 1A, so if something happens with that 1A, if he misses the break or they try a change of tactics this guy will be all alone on the lead. Now is he good enough to sit 2nd and make them catch him? can he do that? we will see, 12-1 is interesting especially if he benefited from his last race which it looks like it was a nice tightener as he did get tired toward the end...
....belmont and bets sooonn
